Latin America needs a detox from US drug problem

20 May

americas_drugsummit01Latin America needs a detox from the U.S. drug problem. A report released Friday by the Organization of American States openly embraces options to legalize the drug business. But the U.S. government is in denial. More guns have failed to stem the flow of blow heading north. A gradual market-based approach to drugs is overdue.

A usually irrelevant OAS has found its voice in the drug debate. Its report “The Drug Problem in the Americas” is a breath of fresh air for two main reasons. For one, it recognizes drugs as a business that can at some point be regulated. Secondly, it shows that it’s no longer taboo for Latin American countries to ponder alternatives to Washington’s war on drug lords.

The incentive to smuggle drugs to the United States, the world’s largest consumer of illegal substances, is almost irresistible. The U.S. cocaine market topped $40 billion in 2009, while marijuana reached $64 billion in 2005, based on the latest United Nations data. Cocaine’s jungle-to-nostril value chain goes like this: Cocaine paste can fetch as much as $780 per kilo in Colombia’s jungle. After smuggling costs and adulteration, that kilo becomes two, worth a total retail price of $330,000 north of the Rio Grande – more than 400 times its original value. Coffee grains, an agricultural staple of economies such as Colombia’s, barely get five times the price at the coffee shop than at the farm gate.

Washington’s bet that a military approach can defeat the drug business yields dispiriting data, too. Mexico’s government reckons nearly 150,000 people die every year in Latin America due to drug violence, civilians included. Nearly 60,000 people died in Mexico alone in the six years to January 2012, following the Mexican military’s move to flush out drug barons. In that same period the World Health Organization recorded merely 563 deaths in Mexico from illegal drug overdoses. In Colombia, OAS data show, homicides rise by 2 percent for every 10 percent increase in international cocaine prices. That is a high price to pay for someone else’s drug problem.

Countries in the region are now betting decriminalizing personal drug use will do more for them. Mexico (in 2009), Chile (2005), Brazil (2006) and others have eliminated penalties for possession of small amounts of pot and cocaine. In contrast, only 18 U.S. states allow medical marijuana and just two, Colorado and Washington State, approved laws for pot legalization. But with the brunt of the drug violence felt abroad, Washington has little incentive to make drug consumption legal.

Latin America’s patience is running out. With more robust economies and a more assertive middle class, countries in the region may soon choose to stop waging what they perceive to be a lost U.S. war.

Brazil’s auction win rings hollow for energy sector

15 May

imagesCAMD2XFUBrazil’s oil tender success rings hollow for the energy sector. South America’s giant is touting a renewed interest in its oil wells. But Brazil’s first oil auction in four years had cautious companies bidding for half the blocks offered. Weak suppliers and a troubled Petrobras remain a concern. Brazil’s energy sector still has work to do.

Brazilians have much to crow about this week. The country’s 11th oil bid round, held Tuesday, ended a day earlier than planned, after receiving a record $1.4 billion in bids for onshore and offshore oil blocks. This was higher than the $1.18 billion obtained during the 9th oil auction held in 2007. And it comes a day after state oil company Petrobras sold $11 billion in bonds, the largest emerging markets debt sale ever.

A closer look at the week’s events tells a more nuanced story. Brazilian regulators successfully auctioned just 49 percent of the 289 blocks offered. This was higher than the 42 percent success rate of the previous oil tender in 2008, but not by much. And a dearth of new exploration real estate drew plenty of bidders, but mostly domestic or small. Big names like ExxonMobil and Chevron placed cautious bids for a handful of blocks by sharing the risk with partners. Brazil’s own Petrobras, by itself or partnering with others, took nearly a quarter of all blocks auctioned.

The future doesn’t look evidently brighter either. Brasilia forces oil companies to source most equipment from domestic suppliers that cannot handle the growing demand. Even Petrobras asked the government earlier this year to relax local content rules for 34 different items from pumps to tanks to drilling instruments. The newly auctioned fields can make the market for supplies even tighter.

Petrobras itself is also a problem. The company’s oil output is stuck at 1.9 million barrels a day due to scarce supplies and a pricey workforce. And its $237 billion five-year business plan, the world’s largest, is forcing the company to load up on debt. True, Petrobras placed $11 billion in bonds paying low rates this week, but this merely reflects excess global liquidity seeking a home and investors hungry for yield.

Petrobras and its foreign peers have done their part under the circumstances. Now Brasilia can lend a hand. Meddling less in the business by, say, freeing companies to seek supplies elsewhere, for now, would be a good start.

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